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Bull elk in golden grass at sunset below the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Great Sand Dunes, Colorado

EM851O4R Elk Draw Odds, Colorado

Antlered (male) elk in GMU 851, 4th regular rifle season. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve) via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Credits
FactValue
HuntAntlered (male) elk, GMU 851, 4th regular rifle season
License listA
2026 quota0
2026 first-choice applicants (adult + youth, res + nonres)127,787
2026 licenses drawn: resident / nonresident (adult)4 / 1
Share drawn by residents (incl. youth)80%
Nonresident cap / hybrid draw shareN/A / N/A
CPW drawn out at, 2026: residentnone drawn
CPW drawn out at, 2026: nonresidentnone drawn

Resident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.

Your points1st-choice applicantsDrawnOdds at this level
2311100.0%
2111100.0%
2011100.0%
19100.0%
18500.0%
17200.0%
165120.0%
14300.0%
13100.0%
12500.0%
11500.0%
10100.0%
9200.0%
8300.0%
7500.0%
6400.0%
5500.0%
4400.0%
2100.0%
1200.0%
0200.0%
40200.0%
39100.0%
38100.0%
35400.0%
34400.0%
33700.0%
321200.0%
313600.0%
305000.0%
296500.0%
288600.0%
2711000.0%
2611700.0%
2514400.0%
2414700.0%
2315400.0%
2219000.0%
2119900.0%
2024600.0%
1927100.0%
1827700.0%
1731900.0%
1637200.0%
1536700.0%
1443300.0%
1355400.0%
1267500.0%
1172100.0%
1093300.0%
91,16800.0%
81,44700.0%
71,51900.0%
61,89700.0%
52,27000.0%
42,76600.0%
33,24900.0%
23,88900.0%
14,99500.0%
06,75900.0%

Resident point-creep forecast for 2027

Not enough years of data for a forecast.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.

Your points1st-choice applicantsDrawnOdds at this level
282150.0%
26100.0%
25200.0%
23100.0%
22100.0%
21100.0%
15100.0%
7100.0%
5100.0%
2100.0%
1100.0%
36200.0%
35500.0%
342100.0%
334100.0%
326200.0%
3111300.0%
3014200.0%
2918300.0%
2821100.0%
2727200.0%
2625300.0%
2530300.0%
2433400.0%
2328900.0%
2234100.0%
2145900.0%
2055100.0%
1952900.0%
1863300.0%
1758600.0%
1669500.0%
1569900.0%
1475300.0%
1378100.0%
1287000.0%
111,11700.0%
101,20400.0%
91,60400.0%
83,10500.0%
73,52400.0%
63,98300.0%
55,30900.0%
46,49600.0%
38,16900.0%
29,36600.0%
111,83100.0%
016,48600.0%

Nonresident point-creep forecast for 2027

Not enough years of data for a forecast.

Drawn-out history

The point level where CPW's preference draw ran out for adult applicants, each year.

Draw yearResidentNonresident
2023none drawnnone drawn
2024none drawnnone drawn
2025none drawnnone drawn
2026none drawnnone drawn

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

Few applicants in the reports we have.

Deadline

CPW's 2026 primary draw ran Mar 1 to Apr 7, 2026 (8 p.m. Mountain). CPW has not posted the 2027 dates yet; recent years closed on the first Tuesday of April. A current qualifying license is required before you apply. CPW primary draw page.

Deadline reminder: Colorado primary draw

Deadline Apr 6, 2027. Expected: recent CPW primary draws closed the first Tuesday of April (8 p.m. Mountain).

Add to calendar (.ics) Includes an alert 7 days before.

Proven gear for this hunt

Optics that hold up on Colorado elk hunts. Field-tested by our team and highly rated by hunters who bought them.

Source: Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), 2026 Primary Draw Recap for elk (report, CPW elk statistics). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own; CPW does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with CPW. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.

Bull elk with velvet antlers grazing at a forest edge in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado

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Photo: National Park Service (Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve) via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Credits