595-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 595-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 595-21 (first and only archery only) |
| 2026 total quota | 1,800 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's nonresident quota column) | 180 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 270 / 180 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 974 / 274 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 974 / 274 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 100.0% / 100.0% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 1,259 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 401 | 401 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 486 | 486 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 39 | 39 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 21 | 21 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+14 applicants a year), about 988 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 99%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 6 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 77 | 77 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 120 | 120 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 48 | 48 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+18 applicants a year), about 292 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 94%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (-0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Resident applicants | Resident odds | Nonresident applicants | Nonresident odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,800 | 931 | 100.0% | 221 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 1,800 | 854 | 100.0% | 263 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1,800 | 908 | 100.0% | 260 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 1,800 | 974 | 100.0% | 274 | 100.0% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 974 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,800, about 0.5 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Deadline reminder: Montana deer and elk permit drawing
Deadline Apr 1, 2027. Expected: the April 1 deadline has held in recent years (11:45 p.m. Mountain).
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Plan the hunt: Montana apply checklist · Montana elk pack list · Elk hunting binoculars.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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