580-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana
Deer b license, district 580-00 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer b license, district 580-00 (mule) |
| 2026 total quota | 50 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's nonresident quota column) | 5 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 8 / 5 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 54 / 14 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 45 / 5 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 83.3% / 35.7% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 50 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 22 | 14 | 63.6% |
| 1 | 2 | 25 | 24 | 96.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-9 applicants a year), about 45 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (+0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-6 applicants a year), about 8 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 60%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.9 (+0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Resident applicants | Resident odds | Nonresident applicants | Nonresident odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 50 | 81 | 54.3% | 31 | 16.1% |
| 2024 | 50 | 82 | 54.9% | 26 | 19.2% |
| 2025 | 50 | 68 | 64.7% | 27 | 18.5% |
| 2026 | 50 | 54 | 83.3% | 14 | 35.7% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 54 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 1.1 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 64% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 40% drew.
Deadline
Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Deadline reminder: Montana B license and antelope drawing
Deadline Jun 1, 2027. Expected: the June 1 deadline has held in recent years (11:45 p.m. Mountain).
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Plan the hunt: Montana apply checklist · Elk hunting binoculars.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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