130-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Deer permit, district 130-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer permit, district 130-50 (mule) |
| 2026 total quota | 10 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's nonresident quota column) | 1 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 2 / 1 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 296 / 13 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 9 / 1 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 3.0% / 7.7% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 10 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 24 | 1 | 4.2% |
| 7 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
| 8 | 65 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| 9 | 82 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| 10 | 101 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+18 applicants a year), about 314 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.23 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 15 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 7%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.2 (+0.48 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Resident applicants | Resident odds | Nonresident applicants | Nonresident odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 10 | 241 | 4.1% | 6 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 10 | 275 | 3.3% | 18 | 5.6% |
| 2025 | 10 | 259 | 3.9% | 8 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 10 | 296 | 3.0% | 13 | 7.7% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 296 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 10, about 29.6 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 12 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 40% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Deadline reminder: Montana deer and elk permit drawing
Deadline Apr 1, 2027. Expected: the April 1 deadline has held in recent years (11:45 p.m. Mountain).
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Plan the hunt: Montana apply checklist · Elk hunting binoculars.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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